From Venezuela to Tehran, Trump is reshaping energy geopolitics with military force and strategic calculation
War and Oil: The Strategic Logic Behind the Iran Strikes
The decision by the Trump administration to launch military strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, did not happen in a vacuum. It was the latest move in a carefully constructed strategy to reshape global energy geopolitics in ways that favor American power, weaken adversarial regimes, and reduce China’s access to discounted oil from sanctioned producers. To understand the Iran strikes, it is necessary to understand what Trump has already done in Venezuela, what he is trying to do in the broader Middle East, and what the consequences of this strategy could be for global energy markets, authoritarian regimes, and the millions of people whose lives will be shaped by the price of oil.
The Venezuela Template
In January 2026, the Trump administration captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a military operation and installed a transitional government under Delcy Rodriguez. The operation was officially justified on counternarcotics grounds, but Trump made clear in subsequent statements that oil was a central motivation. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and the administration moved swiftly to redirect Venezuelan crude from China’s shadow oil networks into US-controlled supply chains. Trump announced that roughly 80 million barrels of Venezuelan oil had been received by the US, with sale proceeds controlled by the administration. Secretary of State Marco Rubio demanded that the new Venezuelan government cut ties with China, Iran, Russia, and Cuba as a condition of continued support. The strategic logic was explicit: deny Beijing access to discounted, sanctioned oil and force it to buy energy at market rates from US-aligned producers. For Venezuelan democracy advocates and political prisoners who had suffered under Maduro’s brutal rule, the change brought the release of over 1,557 political prisoners in the days after the transition. The Council on Foreign Relations has tracked the full complexity of this transition with careful analysis.
Iran as the Next Node in the Sanctions Architecture
Iran is the other major source of discounted, sanctioned oil flowing to China. Iranian crude has been a cornerstone of Beijing’s energy security strategy, providing below-market barrels that gave Chinese industry a competitive advantage and insulated China from Western financial pressure. A sustained US campaign against Iranian energy infrastructure would disrupt that supply, potentially forcing China to pay higher prices for energy from Gulf producers who are US-aligned, or to divert resources to domestic production that cannot close the gap. The Trump administration appears to have calculated that oil market conditions created a favorable window for this campaign. OPEC production increases had kept global oil markets relatively well supplied and prices moderate in the months before the strikes, giving the US more room to absorb the price impact of Iranian supply disruption without triggering a domestic inflation crisis.
The Energy Dominance Doctrine
Trump’s energy strategy has a name: energy dominance. It holds that the United States, as the world’s largest oil and natural gas producer, should use its energy position as a strategic instrument, combining domestic production, sanctions enforcement, and if necessary military action to shape global energy flows in America’s favor. The Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy has been among the most rigorous analysts of how this doctrine plays out in practice across Venezuela, Iran, and the broader sanctions architecture. The center has noted that the reintegration of Venezuelan and potentially Iranian crude at market prices would reduce the competitive pressure that has sustained large price concessions on Russian oil, narrowing the discounts that made sanctioned oil strategically valuable for China in the first place.
The Strait of Hormuz Risk
The most dangerous dimension of the Iran strategy is the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20 percent of global oil consumption flows through this narrow waterway, and Iran has both the motive and the capability to threaten or attempt to close it in response to sustained military pressure. A closure even for days would send global oil prices to levels not seen in decades, triggering economic pain across every nation that depends on imported energy. The US Energy Information Administration has published detailed analysis of the Strait’s strategic significance and the global consequences of its disruption. That analysis makes the stakes of the current military campaign viscerally clear.
Democracy, Autocracy, and the Oil Wars
There is a genuine democracy dimension to this energy strategy that should not be lost in the economic analysis. Maduro’s Venezuela was a narco-state that terrorized its own population, destroyed its democratic institutions, and used oil revenue to sustain a system of repression. Iran’s Islamic Republic has executed thousands of protesters, imprisoned journalists and human rights defenders, and used its oil revenue to fund proxy militias that have destabilized the broader Middle East for decades. Depriving authoritarian regimes of the resource revenues that sustain their repression is, in principle, compatible with democracy advocacy. But the manner in which that deprivation is achieved matters enormously, and military strikes that kill civilians and destroy infrastructure create conditions in which authoritarianism often grows stronger rather than weaker. The question facing policymakers and citizens alike is whether there is a path to the energy policy goals that does not require war.
Jessica Lam
Politics & Diaspora Affairs Journalist, Apple Daily UK
Contact: jessica.lam@appledaily.uk
Jessica Lam is a politics and diaspora affairs journalist with specialized expertise in Hong Kong governance, overseas Chinese communities, and democratic movements. Educated at a leading UK journalism institution, she received advanced training in political reporting, international law basics, and source protection, equipping her for complex cross-border coverage.
Jessica has worked with Apple Daily and other liberal Chinese publications, reporting on electoral systems, civic participation, protest movements, and policy developments affecting the Chinese diaspora. Her work demonstrates strong command of political context and an ability to translate complex issues into accessible, fact-driven journalism.
She brings real-world newsroom experience in covering time-sensitive political developments while maintaining strict verification standards. Jessica regularly works with primary documents, expert interviews, and multiple independent sources to ensure balanced and accurate reporting.
Her authority is reinforced by consistent publication within established news organizations and by adherence to editorial review processes. She is known for transparent attribution and for distinguishing clearly between reporting and analysis.
Jessica Lam’s journalism reflects professional experience, subject-matter expertise, and a strong ethical foundation. At Apple Daily UK, she contributes trusted political coverage that serves readers seeking independent and credible information.
