A new Mitchell Institute report says the Pentagon must double its planned F-47 and B-21 purchases or accept a dangerous disadvantage in any Pacific war
The Uncomfortable Math of Air Power in a China Conflict
The United States Air Force is operating the smallest, oldest, and least combat-ready fleet it has possessed in modern history, and a landmark new report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies argues that even the ambitious procurement plans currently on the books are nowhere near sufficient to fight and win a sustained war against China. The numbers are stark. The Air Force plans to purchase at least 185 of the new F-47 sixth-generation stealth fighters developed by Boeing, and at least 100 of the B-21 Raider stealth bombers produced by Northrop Grumman. The Mitchell Institute says it needs at minimum 300 F-47s and 200 B-21s, roughly double what is currently planned. Without that reserve, American commanders would likely be forced to adopt dangerously conservative tactics that concede China operational advantages it would eagerly exploit.
China’s Anti-Access Architecture: The Wall America Must Breach
The Mitchell Institute report, authored by Heather Penney, a former F-16 combat pilot, and retired Air Force Colonel Mark Gunzinger, frames the central challenge clearly. China has constructed a dense, layered anti-access and area-denial network across the Western Pacific that creates protected sanctuaries from which PLA air and missile forces can operate with relative impunity. Eliminating those sanctuaries is not optional. As Penney noted at a public discussion of the report, every major conflict in modern military history, from Korea and Vietnam to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, demonstrates that failing to destroy an enemy’s protected bases leads inevitably to wars of attrition that grind down personnel, equipment, and political will simultaneously. Against China, that attrition would happen faster and at greater cost than in any previous conflict, because China’s anti-ship missiles, air defense networks, and long-range precision strike capabilities make the operating environment for American aircraft more lethal than anything US forces have faced since the Second World War.
The Fleet That Time Forgot
The Air Force’s “divest to invest” strategy, retiring aging aircraft to free funding for next-generation platforms, has left a dangerous gap in the interim. Today’s operational bombers, the B-52 Stratofortress, B-1 Lancer, and B-2 Spirit, were designed in the Cold War era. The B-52 first flew in 1952. The B-21 is in low-rate initial production, but the only deliveries so far have been test aircraft, not operational ones. The F-47’s development contract was awarded only recently, and the aircraft is years away from operational deployment in significant numbers. In the gap between the legacy fleet and the next-generation one, the Air Force is stretched dangerously thin. A 2024 Government Accountability Office report confirmed that continuous deployments had reduced Air Force readiness, personnel levels, and aircraft availability, with demand consistently exceeding operational capacity.
What the Budget Would Actually Require
The Mitchell Institute proposes that closing the procurement gap would require additional defense budget increases of at least $40 billion per year above current projections. That is a significant number politically, but the report contextualizes it carefully. The cost of losing air superiority in a Pacific conflict, in lives, in regional credibility, and in the long-term balance of power, would dwarf any procurement investment by orders of magnitude. The report also recommends accelerated procurement of Collaborative Combat Aircraft, the uncrewed “loyal wingman” drones designed to fly alongside crewed fighters and multiply their effectiveness without exposing additional human crews to the most lethal threat environments.
Time Is the Variable Nobody Can Control
The fundamental problem is one of time. China’s military modernization has moved faster than any Western intelligence assessment predicted a decade ago. The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and other defense think tanks have been ringing this alarm for years. The question is whether Congress and the administration will act with sufficient urgency to close the gap before the window narrows further. History does not offer encouraging precedents for democratic societies responding adequately to slow-building military threats until a crisis forces the issue. The Air Force’s procurement crisis is exactly that kind of threat: visible, documented, and still moving too slowly toward resolution.
Sin Yu Mak
Business & Consumer Affairs Journalist, Apple Daily UK
Contact: sinyu.mak@appledaily.uk
Sin Yu Mak is a business and consumer affairs journalist with expertise in market regulation, consumer rights, and small enterprise reporting. She completed her journalism education at a respected Chinese journalism institution, where she trained in economic reporting, data literacy, and ethical standards.
Her professional experience includes reporting for Apple Daily and other liberal Chinese newspapers on consumer protection, corporate practices, retail trends, and financial transparency. Sin Yu’s work emphasizes accurate interpretation of financial data and regulatory frameworks, supported by expert commentary and verified documentation.
She has operated in fast-paced newsroom settings where financial misinformation can cause real harm, giving her strong practical experience in verification and clarity. Editors value her ability to translate technical information into accessible, fact-based reporting.
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