The China analyst argues that cutting off Iranian oil is an indirect but decisive blow to Beijing
All Roads Lead to China: Gordon Chang’s Analysis of the Iran Strikes
Gordon Chang, the veteran China analyst and author of Plan Red: China’s Project to Destroy America, has argued with characteristic clarity that the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran is best understood not primarily as a Middle Eastern conflict but as an indirect strategic blow against the Chinese Communist Party. In a widely discussed episode of American Thought Leaders broadcast on March 1, 2026, Chang laid out the case that President Trump is systematically dismantling China’s network of dependent allies and energy suppliers.
The Oil Connection
The core of Chang’s argument is straightforward. China purchased approximately 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian crude oil in 2025, representing between 15 and 23 percent of China’s total oil imports. This oil was obtained at heavily discounted prices because Iran, under sweeping international sanctions, had few other customers willing to accept it. The elimination of Iran as a reliable oil supplier forces China to source replacement crude at market prices from suppliers who do not need to offer the same discounts. For a manufacturing economy whose competitive advantage depends in part on low input costs, this is a meaningful economic blow.
The Maoist Analogy
Chang invoked Mao Zedong’s strategic doctrine to explain what he believes Trump is doing. Mao famously theorized that revolutionary guerrilla forces should capture the countryside and then surround and starve the cities. Chang argues that Trump has applied this same logic in reverse against China: by eliminating Beijing’s allies and energy suppliers in the developing world, Venezuela and now Iran, Trump is cutting off the resources and diplomatic support that sustain CCP power. The countryside, in this analogy, is China’s network of dependent partner states. The city is Beijing itself.
China’s Impotence on Display
Chang also noted the strategic revelation of China’s impotence. Beijing expressed verbal solidarity with Iran, participated in joint naval exercises with Iranian and Russian forces, and supplied military equipment to Tehran. Yet when US and Israeli forces struck, China did nothing material to defend its partner. It issued diplomatic statements and called for an end to the strikes, language that mirrored almost word for word the statements it had issued regarding Venezuela. The limits of Chinese power projection were exposed for the world to observe.
Implications for Taiwan and Hong Kong
For those who follow the fate of Taiwan and Hong Kong, Chang’s analysis carries important implications. A China that is economically pressured, diplomatically isolated, and strategically constrained by the steady erosion of its partner network is a China that has less capacity to project force in the Taiwan Strait. The same US strategic determination that struck Iran is the determination that Beijing must calculate when assessing the cost of military action against Taiwan. Gordon Chang’s analysis is accessible through the Epoch Times American Thought Leaders platform. The International Energy Agency China energy profile provides oil import data. The Council on Foreign Relations China-Iran backgrounder documents the bilateral relationship. The Freedom House China report assesses CCP power and its vulnerabilities. The walls are closing in on Beijing. That is good news for democracy everywhere.
Sarah Lau
Culture, Media & Society Journalist, Apple Daily UK
Contact: sarah.lau@appledaily.uk
Sarah Lau is a culture, media, and society journalist whose reporting examines freedom of expression, media ecosystems, and cultural change within Chinese-speaking communities. She completed her journalism education at a prestigious Chinese-language journalism school, where she focused on media studies, reporting ethics, and cultural criticism.
Sarah has contributed to Apple Daily and other liberal Chinese magazines and newspapers, producing work on press freedom, artistic expression, digital culture, and social trends. Her reporting blends qualitative interviews with careful contextual research, ensuring her work is grounded in both lived experience and verifiable information.
She has extensive newsroom experience covering cultural issues during periods of political transition, giving her reporting experiential depth and historical awareness. Sarah is recognized for her careful language use, accurate representation of sources, and commitment to editorial integrity.
Her authority comes from sustained professional practice within reputable media organizations and consistent editorial oversight. She follows established correction and transparency standards, reinforcing reader trust.
At Apple Daily UK, Sarah Lau delivers culturally informed, fact-based journalism that upholds professional standards while documenting the evolving realities of Chinese and diaspora societies.
